what determines exchange rates in forex market?
Friday, March 14, 2014
, Posted by Ryanita at 11:57 PM
mm
Answer
What Determines Foreign Exchange (Currency) Rates
There are number of factors that contribute to changes in Forex rates. Below are some of them.
1. Interest rate movements
A rational investor will often look for the best place, in terms of returns, to park their money. If interest rates were high and outlook for the stock market is grim for example, then currency might be the better option (more attractive). Then, currency becomes more expensive due to the high demand..
Also, if you look at two countries. For example, the United States of America and Australia. Australia, at the present moment, has a higher interest rate than the US of A. Thus it makes more sense to park money here in Australia than in the US, thus earning a higher interest. Again, this will drive US Dollars down and push the Aussie Dollars up. This is what you call as⦠CARRY TRADE.
2. Central Banks Manipulation
A Central Bank can be a major player in the Forex market. It can buy and sell large sums of currencies to manipulate the market. There are many reasons to why central banks do this, but they will not be discussed here.
Bank Negara Malaysia was an influential player in the Forex market, to the point of getting a warning from Alan Greenspan, the then chairman of US Federal Reserve.
Also, referring to the 1st factor of interest rate movements, the central bank is the setter of interest rates.
3. Speculators/Traders
Pretty similar with above, the big players in the market like institutions or just people with heaps of money, they can influence Forex market movements by buying or selling large sums of currencies.
4. Unexpected News Announcements
Any unexpected political and economical news announcements can also cause movements in the Forex market.
5. Balance of Payments
Okay, this involves a few jargons like balance of payments, export, import, current accounts, deficits, and surpluses. Iâll just put them in an example.
Suppose a country is exporting goods & services more than it is importing, resulting in more money coming into the country. In this instance, the state of current account surplus is to be expected (letâs just assume that is in surplus). Large current account surplus will make the currency to appreciate.
Contrast this with a country that imports more than it exports (i.e. more money going out than coming in), in which current account deficits will exist (letâs just assume that it is in deficit). In this instance, the currency will depreciate.
All in all, we can conclude that at the end of the day, Forex rates are determined by supply and demand. If there is a high demand for a particular currency, it will appreciate. If there is a low demand for a particular currency, it will depreciate.
What Determines Foreign Exchange (Currency) Rates
There are number of factors that contribute to changes in Forex rates. Below are some of them.
1. Interest rate movements
A rational investor will often look for the best place, in terms of returns, to park their money. If interest rates were high and outlook for the stock market is grim for example, then currency might be the better option (more attractive). Then, currency becomes more expensive due to the high demand..
Also, if you look at two countries. For example, the United States of America and Australia. Australia, at the present moment, has a higher interest rate than the US of A. Thus it makes more sense to park money here in Australia than in the US, thus earning a higher interest. Again, this will drive US Dollars down and push the Aussie Dollars up. This is what you call as⦠CARRY TRADE.
2. Central Banks Manipulation
A Central Bank can be a major player in the Forex market. It can buy and sell large sums of currencies to manipulate the market. There are many reasons to why central banks do this, but they will not be discussed here.
Bank Negara Malaysia was an influential player in the Forex market, to the point of getting a warning from Alan Greenspan, the then chairman of US Federal Reserve.
Also, referring to the 1st factor of interest rate movements, the central bank is the setter of interest rates.
3. Speculators/Traders
Pretty similar with above, the big players in the market like institutions or just people with heaps of money, they can influence Forex market movements by buying or selling large sums of currencies.
4. Unexpected News Announcements
Any unexpected political and economical news announcements can also cause movements in the Forex market.
5. Balance of Payments
Okay, this involves a few jargons like balance of payments, export, import, current accounts, deficits, and surpluses. Iâll just put them in an example.
Suppose a country is exporting goods & services more than it is importing, resulting in more money coming into the country. In this instance, the state of current account surplus is to be expected (letâs just assume that is in surplus). Large current account surplus will make the currency to appreciate.
Contrast this with a country that imports more than it exports (i.e. more money going out than coming in), in which current account deficits will exist (letâs just assume that it is in deficit). In this instance, the currency will depreciate.
All in all, we can conclude that at the end of the day, Forex rates are determined by supply and demand. If there is a high demand for a particular currency, it will appreciate. If there is a low demand for a particular currency, it will depreciate.
Which is better Technical or Fundamental Analysis in Forex?
LoveeR
Can Anybody tell me which is better analysis Technical or fundamental?Or there is any other way to predict about the Currencies/Forex Market?
what are uses of these analysis?are these worthless?
Answer
Either Technical or Fundamental analysis can be used in the forex market. Traders can make legitimate cases for either, and many will incorporate both into their strategy.
Fundamentals:
Traders using fundamentals look at the relative strength of each economy by reviewing economic information such as interest rates, GDP, employment, inflation, stock market healthm, etc. Traders/investors will move their money to the country where they can get the highest rate of return. And since you're trading in currency pairs, you want to trade the strongest currency versus the weakest currency when judging by the fundamentals. You can compare this to stocks. Everyone wants to buy the stock that has the brightest outlook, strongest growth, biggest profits, etc. The difference with currencies is that you're judging the countries economy instead of a companies balance sheet and growth outlook. Sure, political events will affect a currency, and so do management decisions...Steve Jobs at Apple, Ken Lay at Enron,etc.
Technicals: The same technical analysis used in the stock market can be used in the currency markets. In fact, some traders find it works better since there is less gapping in currencies. So you can use technical indicators, support, resistance, trendlines, candlesticks, etc.
Here are two resources to learn more about fundamental and technical analysis. I say it's best for you to learn both and use which one you find works best for your trading.
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/free-video-forex-trading-course/
http://www.babypips.com/school/
Either Technical or Fundamental analysis can be used in the forex market. Traders can make legitimate cases for either, and many will incorporate both into their strategy.
Fundamentals:
Traders using fundamentals look at the relative strength of each economy by reviewing economic information such as interest rates, GDP, employment, inflation, stock market healthm, etc. Traders/investors will move their money to the country where they can get the highest rate of return. And since you're trading in currency pairs, you want to trade the strongest currency versus the weakest currency when judging by the fundamentals. You can compare this to stocks. Everyone wants to buy the stock that has the brightest outlook, strongest growth, biggest profits, etc. The difference with currencies is that you're judging the countries economy instead of a companies balance sheet and growth outlook. Sure, political events will affect a currency, and so do management decisions...Steve Jobs at Apple, Ken Lay at Enron,etc.
Technicals: The same technical analysis used in the stock market can be used in the currency markets. In fact, some traders find it works better since there is less gapping in currencies. So you can use technical indicators, support, resistance, trendlines, candlesticks, etc.
Here are two resources to learn more about fundamental and technical analysis. I say it's best for you to learn both and use which one you find works best for your trading.
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/free-video-forex-trading-course/
http://www.babypips.com/school/
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