How to Use a Relative Strength Analysis in Forex Trading

Posted by Ryanita on Tuesday, August 12, 2008 , under | comments (0)



The relative strength analysis is a technical report that allows investors and brokers to make informed decisions about trading on the Forex. The Forex, also known as the FX or foreign exchange market is the most liquid of all markets in the world. Over two trillion dollars changes hands everyday through the foreign exchange market. There are many factors that affect both the stock market and the foreign exchange market.

When investors and brokers look at the relative strength analysis, they are getting a picture of how the trends in the Forex should go. This analysis allows brokers to see current trends in the foreign exchange market and allows them to know if they are interested in buying or selling currency at any given time. This can help an investor or financial institution make educated decisions on which markets are gaining and which ones are losing.

There are many factors that affect the exchange rate in the Forex. These factors can include political events, governmental policies, inflation, and current trends in the importing and exporting business, consumer opinions and even natural disasters all over the world. The relative strength analysis looks at all of these factors. The past trends in the Forex are also taken into consideration, but are not the only thing that is looked at when forecasting this type of market.

The relative strength analysis compares all foreign currency and the exchange rates every day. The report will then be sorted by their strength rating and ranked according the previous week’s rating. This report relies on at least 45 weeks of data so that sustained growth can be seen with ease. Using this analysis promises to be one of the most valuable tools of forecast the trends in the Forex. In addition, it can show the rating of stocks and rate them into which ones are the strongest. The stock market has a direct relation to the foreign exchange market because it reflects current trends in buying and selling, which will increase or decrease the value of currency.

The current trend in predicting the trends in the Forex is to use not only the relative strength analysis, but to also look at other factors such as the stock market barometers and economic factors. When investors and brokers look into all of these factors when forecasting the Forex, it makes for a highly reliable means of predicting trends. This can be the vital difference between making money and losing money on the foreign exchange market.It is generally agreed that for a currency trader, it is important to understand how the methods and tools are used in both the Forex and the stock market. All currencies are different and the currency rate reflects the value of one currency in relation to another. When there is a noticeable change in the value of currency, one or both values will be affected. Using these methods of comparing the relative strength analysis to the Forex can offer currency traders with an opportunity to better forecast their trades.

There are several benefits to using the relative strength analysis when attempting to forecast the Forex. When an investor looks at the relative strength of a certain stock, it affects the foreign exchange rate. One with a strong relative strength is ideal, but the value on these will not be low. Investors can look at a stock that is increasing in values and used the relative strength to measure whether or not this particular stock is moving up because it has a history of increasing or if it has a sustained high value. Stocks with a good relative strength over a constant, steady time period are good performers in the Forex market.

When using the relative strength analysis in relation to the foreign currency exchange, it is possible to tell which markets are performing well and which ones are not. The key is finding the markets and currency that are moving up on the ranking scale. It is important to remember that like stocks, the Forex is affected by a variety of factors. The relative strength analysis can help investors find which ones are good investments. This report is based mostly on a stock’s closing price and the relative strength analysis is based on gains and losses. The report can calculate the markets report for any period in time.

UAE warns markets against betting on dirham revaluation

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DUBAI/MANAMA:
The United Arab Emirates warned markets against betting on a dirham revaluation as investors piled pressure on the region's dollar pegs, expecting Gulf rulers to change currency policy at a summit next week.

The UAE was able to withstand pressure from speculators who drove the dirham to a 17-year high on Friday, al-Khaleej newspaper quoted Central Bank Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi as saying, echoing a warning from Bahrain's central bank.

Suweidi ratcheted up expectations Gulf oil producers would sever links to the tumbling dollar, when he called last month for the region to track a currency basket to check inflation.

The speaker of Bahrain's parliament joined a chorus of calls for currency reform, proposing the government track the dinar against a currency basket as fellow Gulf oil producer Kuwait has been doing since May, al-Ayam newspaper reported. In remarks carried by Dubai-based Khaleej, Suweidi moved to quell investor expectations that a change was imminent.

"Their speculation will not yield the gains they expect," Suweidi said in remarks initially aired on state-owned Dubai TV, according to the newspaper.

Bahrain's central bank threatened to take action against anyone betting on dinar appreciation and accused foreign banks of spreading revaluation rumours, Middle East Economic Digest reported after an interview with Governor Rasheed al-Maraj. Kuwait's central bank also warned investors against speculating on a revaluation in March.

In May it dropped the peg to the dollar saying the US currency's slide was fuelling inflation by making some imports more expensive. Suweidi said the UAE central bank was not "currently" considering dropping the peg and any decision would be made by the government with other Gulf oil producers preparing for monetary union as early as 2010,

Posted by Ryanita on Sunday, August 10, 2008 , under | comments (0)


Ride the Wave – The Elliott Wave Theory for Forex Markets

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One of the best known and least understood theories of technical analysis in forex trading is the Elliot Wave Theory. Developed in the 1920s by Ralph Nelson Elliot as a method of predicting trends in the stock market, the Elliot Wave theory applies fractal mathematics to movements in the market to make predictions based on crowd behavior. In its essence, the Elliot Wave theory states that the market – in this case, the forex market – moves in a series of 5 swings upward and 3 swings back down, repeated perpetually. But if it were that simple, everyone would be making a killing by catching the wave and riding it until just before it crashes on the shore. Obviously, there’s a lot more to it.

One of the things that makes riding the Elliot Wave so tricky is timing – of all the major wave theories, it’s the only one that doesn’t put a time limit on the reactions and rebounds of the market. A single In fact, the theories of fractal mathematics makes it clear that there are multiple waves within waves within waves. Interpreting the data and finding the right curves and crests is a tricky process, which gives rise to the contention that you can put 20 experts on the Elliot Wave theory in one room and they will never reach an agreement on which way a stock – or in this case, a currency – is headed.

Elliot Wave Basics
ï‚· Every action is followed by a reaction.

It’s a standard rule of physics that applies to the crowd behavior on which the Elliot Wave theory is based. If prices drop, people will buy. When people buy, the demand increases and supply decreases driving prices back up. Nearly every system that uses trend analysis to predict the movements of the currency market is based on determining when those actions will cause reactions that make a trade profitable.

ï‚· There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a “5-3″ move).

The Elliot Wave theory is that market activity can be predicted as a series of five waves that move in one direction (the trend) followed by three ‘corrective’ waves that move the market back toward its starting point.

ï‚· A 5-3 move completes a cycle.
And here’s where the theory begins to get truly complex. Like the mirror reflecting a mirror that reflects a mirror that reflects a mirror, the each 5-3 wave is not only complete in itself, it is a superset of a smaller series of waves, and a subset of a larger set of 5-3 waves – the next principle.

 This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave.In Elliot Wave notation, the 5 waves that fit the trend are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 (impulses). The three correcting waves are called a, b and c (corrections). Each of these waves is made up of a 5-3 series of waves, and each of those is made up of a 5-3 series of waves. The 5-3 cycle that you’re studying is an impulse and correction in the next ascending 5-3 series.

 The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each may vary.A 5-3 wave may take decades to complete – or it may be over in minutes. Traders who are successful in using the Elliot Wavy theory to trade in the currency market say that the trick is timing trades to coincide with the beginning and end of impulse 3 to minimize your risk and maximize your profit.

Because the timing of each sequence of waves varies so much, using the Elliot Wave theory is very much a matter of interpretation. Identifying the best time to enter and leave a trade is dependent on being able to see and follow the pattern of larger and smaller waves, and to know when to trade and when to get out based on the patterns you identify

The key is in interpreting the pattern correctly – in finding the right starting point. Once you learn to see the wave patterns and identify them correctly, say those who are experts, you’ll see how they apply in every facet of forex trading, and will be able to use those patterns to trigger your decisions whether you’re day trading or in it for the long haul.

Spot Market

Posted by Ryanita on Thursday, August 7, 2008 , under | comments (0)



Currency spot trading is the most popular foreign currency instrument around the world, making up 37 percent of the total activity.

The fast-paced spot market is not for the fainthearted, as it features high volatility and quick profits (and losses). A spot deal consists of a bilateral contract whereby a party delivers a specified amount of a given currency against receipt of a specified amount of another currency from a counterparty, based on an agreed exchange rate, within two business days of the deal date. The exception is the Canadian dollar, in which the spot delivery is executed next business day.

The name "spot" does not mean that the currency exchange occurs the same business day the deal is executed. Currency transactions that require same-day delivery are called cash transactions. The two-day spot delivery for currencies was developed long before technological breakthroughs in information processing.

This time period was necessary to check out all transactions' details among counterparties. Although technologically feasible, the contemporary markets did not find it necessary to reduce the time to make payments. Human errors still occur and they need to be fixed before delivery. When currency deliveries are made to the wrong party, fines are imposed.

In terms of volume, currencies around the world are traded mostly against the U.S. dollar, because the U.S. dollar is the currency of reference. The other major currencies are the euro, followed by the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the Swiss franc. Other currencies with significant spot market shares are the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.In addition, a significant share of trading takes place in the currencies crosses, a non-dollar instrument whereby foreign currencies are quoted against other foreign currencies, such as euro against Japanese yen.

There are several reasons for the popularity of currency spot trading. Profits (or losses) are realized quickly in the spot market, due to market volatility. In addition, since spot deals mature in only two business days, the time exposure to credit risk is limited. Turnover in the spot market has been increasing dramatically, thanks to the combination of inherent profitability andreduced credit risk. The spot market is characterized by high liquidity and high volatility. Volatility is the degree to which the price of currency tends to fluctuate within a certain period of time. Free-floating currencies, such as the euro or the Japanese yen, tend to be volatile against the U.S. dollar.

In an active global trading day (24 hours), the euro/dollar exchange rate may change its value 18,000 times. An exchange rate may "fly" 200 pips in a matter of seconds if the market gets wind of a significant event. On the other hand, the exchange rate may remain quite static for extended periods of time, even in excess of an hour, when one market is almost finished trading and waiting for the next market to take over. This is a common occurrence toward the end of the New York trading day. Since California failed in the late 1980s to provide the link between the New York and Tokyo markets, there is a technical trading gap between around 4:30 pm and 6 pm EDT. In the United States spot market, the majority of deals are executed between 8 am and noon, when the New York and European markets overlap (See Figure 3.2). The activity drops sharply in the afternoon, over 50 percent in fact, when New York loses the international trading support. Overnight trading is limited, as very few banks have overnight desks. Most of the banks send their overnight orders to branches or other banks that operate in the active time zones.

The major traders in the spot market are the commercial banks and the investment banks, followed by hedge funds and corporate customers. In the interbank market, the majority of the deals are international, reflecting worldwide exchange rate competition and advanced telecommunication systems. However, corporate customers tend to focus their foreign exchangeactivity domestically, or to trade through foreign banks operating in the same time zone. Although the hedge funds' and corporate customers' business in foreign exchange has been growing, banks remain the predominant trading force.The bottom line is important in all financial markets, but in currency spot trading the antes always seem to be higher as a result of the demand from all around the world

The profit and loss can be either realized or unrealized. The realized profit and loss is a certain amount of money netted when a position is closed. The unrealized profit and loss consists of an uncertain amount of money that an outstanding position would roughly generate if it were closed at the current rate. The unrealized profit and loss changes continuously in tandem with the exchange rate.

Forward Market

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The forward currency market consists of two instruments: forward outright deals and swaps. A swap deal is unusual among the rest of the foreign exchange instruments in the fact that it consists of two deals, or legs. All the other transactions consist of single deals. In its original form, a swap deal is a combination of a spot deal and a forward outright deal.

Generally, this market includes only cash transactions. Therefore, currency futures contracts, although a special breed of forward outright transactions, are analyzed separately.

According to figures published by the Bank for International Settlements, the percentage share of the forward market was 57 percent in 1998 (See Figure 3.1). Translated into U.S. dollars, out of an estimated daily gross turnover of US$1.49 trillion, the total forward market represents US$900 billion.

In the forward market there is no norm with regard to the settlement dates, which range from 3 days to 3 years. Volume in currency swaps longer than one year tends to be light but, technically, there is no impediment to making these deals. Any date past the spot date and within the above range may be a forward settlement, provided that it is a valid business day for both currencies. The forward markets are decentralized markets, with players around the world entering into a variety of deals either on a one-on-one basis or through brokers. In contrast, the currency futures market is a centralized market, in which all the deals are executed on trading floors provided by different exchanges.

Whereas in the futures market only a handful of foreign currencies may be traded in multiples of standardized amounts, the forward markets are open to any currencies in any amount. The forward price consists of two significant parts: the spot exchange rate and the forward spread. The spot rate is the main building block. The forward price is derived from the spot price by adjusting the spot price with the forward spread, so it follows that both forward outright and swap deals are derivative instruments. The forward spread is also known as the forward points or the forward pips. The forward spread is necessary for adjusting the spot rate for specific settlement dates different from the spot date. It holds, then, that the maturity date is another determining factor of the forward price. Just as in the case of the spot market, the left side of the quote is the bid side, and the right side is the offer side.

E-Gold

Posted by Ryanita on Wednesday, August 6, 2008 , under | comments (0)



E-Gold Solusi Praktis Bertransaksi di Internet


Dalam setiap aktifitas eBisnis, kita pasti membutuhkan suatu alat pembayaran digital dalam bertransaksi. Alat pembayaran digital ini disebut e-Currency yaitu alat pembayaran yang sah dan bias diterima secara umum di seluruh dunia, misalnya Credit Card. Namun pemakaian credit card melalui media internet masih banyak memunculkan masalah terutama tingkat keamanannya, apalagi Indonesia sekarang dalam kondisi ter-blacklist oleh sebagian merchant internasional karena tingginya angka ‘carding’ atau penyalahgunaan di Indonesia. Sehingga sebagai alternatif untuk melakukan transaksi secara online di Internet kita dapat menggunakan E-Gold.




adalah suatu alat pembayaran digital baru (digital cash) yang dapat dipergunakan di seluruh dunia, dikeluarkan oleh e-gold Ltd., standar nilainya didasarkan pada 100% harga emas murni yang berlaku di pasar dunia, dan ditampilkan dalam bentuk rekening tabungan e-gold. e-gold adalah suatu mata uang seperti halnya rupiah dan dollars, bukan merupakan mata uang nasional suatu negara.

Ini berarti tidak ada suatu negara yang mengeluarkan uang kertas ataupun logam dalam mata uang e-gold. Malahan setiap transaksi dilakukan secara elektronis melalui internet, tidak terbatas oleh letak geografis suatu negara.e-gold pada dasarnya mempunyai fungsi yang sama dengan e-mail. Bedanya e-mail adalah sebagai pengganti surat konvensional yang dikirimkan dengan perangko melalui kantor pos; sedangkan e-gold adalah sebagai pengganti (alternatif) untuk transfer uang ataupun pembayaran yang biasa dilakukan melalui perantara bank (ATM, transfer antar bank, bank draft, dan juga pos wesel). Boleh dikatakan tidak memiliki e-gold di tahun 2000-an, sama dengan tidak memiliki e-mail di tahun 90-an. Ingatkah Anda, kapan Anda mulai mengenal dan mempunyai e-mail?

Membuka rekening e-gold adalah gratis, Anda dapat membuat sebuah rekening e-gold tanpa membayar apapun dan tanpa kewajiban memberikan setoran awal alias (GRATIS). Anda hanya akan membayar 1% untuk setiap transaksi yang dilakukan (maximum fee $0.50 untuk setiap traksaksi), jadi misalnya Anda melakukan transaksi sejumlah $1,000 Anda hanya akan membayar fee sebesar $0.50 (50 cents). Sementara untuk kartu kredit terkena fee sebesar 2%-4% dari total jumlah uang yang dibelanjakan. Anda juga hanya akan membayar uang tahunan sebesar 1% dari jumlah uang yang Anda simpan di e-gold (apakah ini cukup besar jika dibandingkan dengan kartu kredit?).
Anda tidak di tuntut untuk mempuyai kartu kredit dalam bertransaksi menggunakan e-gold ini, cukup dengan rekening Bank lokal



Apakah E-Gold Bisa Dipercaya dan Aman?



Tentu. E-Gold sudah diakui oleh banyak merchant di seluruh dunia dalam melakukan transaksi online dan sebagai media pembayaran yang sah. Selain itu dana di E-Gold dapat ditarik melalui ATM khusus di semua mesin ATM berlogo Cirrus, Maestro dan Master Card. E-Gold sangat mudah dan fleksibel karena real time, anytime, dan anywhere. Jadi sistem transfer dan pembayaran dilakukan waktu itu juga dan bisa dilakukan kapanpun karena selalu buka 24 jam dan bisa melakukan transaksi di manapun. E-Gold memiliki website yang dijamin keamanannya dengan Secure Server 128 bit SSL. Siapapun dapat membuka (create account) rekening E-Gold secara GRATIS seperti halnya bila membuka rekening di bank.Dengan E-Gold kita dapat mengisinya dengan membeli atau menjualnya ke merchant-merchant yang terpercaya yang bertebaran di Indonesia.



Langkah-langkah pembuatan Account E-gold


Buka website E-GoldKlik “Create an Account”Klik “ Agree” di bawah

Buat Data Account
* Account Name: buat nama Account E-gold anda. Nama ini akan muncul ketika ada transaksi jual beli dengan Account anda. contoh : xxx’s e-gold, aaa’s e-gold, dsb.
* User Name: Nama Anda. Description: boleh diisi boleh juga tidak, kalau diisi maka isilah dengan gambaran diri Anda.
* Point of contact: Isi data anda disini. Alternate Passphrase: isian ini adalah Password Account E-Gold Anda, diisi dengan gabungan huruf dan angka minimal 6 karakter.
* Passphrase: password. Gunakan tombol SRK yang ada diatasnya untuk menuliskan password anda. SRK ini akan selalu muncul ketika anda melakukan transaksi account e-gold anda, jadi harap diingat betul password anda. catat dan jangan sampai lupa serta jangan diberitahukan dengan orang lain. Mirip dengan PIN ATM kita di bank.
* New egold account passphrase: sebaiknya sama dengan Alternate Passphrase.
* New e-gold Account Passphrase again: harus sama dengan new E-Gold Account Passphrase. Yang perlu DICATAT adalah passphrase akan selalu digunakan untuk masuk ke dalam Account E-Gold Anda.
* Turing Number Entry : masukkan nomor yang ada dibawahnya, tulisan agak disamarkan, jadi pastikan nomernya benar.

Klik “OPEN”Selesai: nomor account anda dikirim ke alamat email anda. catat nomor Rekening E-Gold Anda karena nomor tersebut akan selalu diminta untuk mengakses rekening E-Gold Anda. Sama seperti Nomor Rekening Bank Anda di Internet.Selanjutnya jika ingin melihat jumlah saldo uang Anda, klik gambar timbangan (BALANCE). Mengetahui rincian transaksi (print out) silahkan klik HISTORY. Untuk merubah data pribadi Anda, klik ACCOUNT INFO. Mentransfer uang Anda tekan SPEND. Anda juga bisa melihat batch nomer anda, bila sewaktu-waktu dibutuhkan.Jangan lupa, selalu akhiri menekan LOGOUT jika selesai menggunakan rekening Anda.

Mengisi Account E-Gold

Untuk mengisi account egold atau menkonversi rupiah menjadi egold dan sebaliknya, dapat dilakukan melalui exchanger egold yang ada di indonesia. Salah satu exchanger egold yang kami gunakan adalah IndoChanger.Untuk dapat melakukan transaksi jual/beli E-Gold silahkan daftar dulu sebagai member dari indochanger, setela anda terdaftar sebagai member di indochanger itu, maka anda dapat melakukan jual/beli egold dengan mudah dan aman.Klik di sini untuk daftar



Setelah anda selesai mendaftar dan mengisi data-data seperti nama lengkap, alamat, email, nomor telpon, nomor account egold, dan nomor rekening bank yang ingin dijadikan sebagai penerima transfer dari hasil penjualan egold, silahkan diperiksa emailnya untuk mengaktivkan account exchangernya.Untuk proses pembelian egold langkah-langkahnya adalah: pertama login dulu dengan username dan password yang pernah dibuat sebelumnya. Setelah masuk ke member area, anda sudah dapat melakukan order e-gold yang mana harganya akan diberikan sesuai dengan kurs yang berlaku saat itu. Setelah mengisi form order beli, dan total dananya sudah dikalkulasikan, maka langkah selanjutnya adalah mentransfer sejumlah dana tersebut ke rekening bank yang yang ada di sana. Setelah mentransfer dananya, lakukan pengiriman sms untuk konfirmasi pembayaran sudah dilakukan, maka dalam waktu beberapa jam kemudian egold anda sudah terisi sesuai dengan jumlah dana yang telah ditransfer. (Notes: Anda tidak perlu khawatir dalam hal ini, karena mereka bisa dipercaya. Saya pribadi sudah berkali-kali melakukan order jual ataupun beli egold dan belum belum pernah dikecewakan)

Tips Menjaga Keamanan E-Gold Anda

Karena E-Gold berisi uang, maka rentan terhadap pencurian apalagi jika menggunakan fasilitas umum seperti Warnet. Ikuti langkah-langkah pengamanan berikut:
  1. Pada saat registrasi E-Gold, sebaiknya Anda isi alamat rumah yang sebenarnya karena apabila anda lupa password loginnya maka satu-satunya jalan untuk mendapatkan password baru adalah dengan mengirim e-mail ke E-Gold dan E-Gold akan mengirim password baru ke alamat rumah Anda melalui surat/pos (tidak bisa lewat e-mail).
  2. Jangan pakai Passphrases E-Gold Anda untuk daftar pada program apapun
  3. Admin E-Gold tidak pernah mengirim e-mail yang ada linknya ke member. Jika ada kiriman e-mail yang meminta Anda mengklik link nya dan memasukkan Passphrases maka sebenarnya mereka adalah hacker yang sengaja akan mencuri rekening E-Gold Anda dan membuat web mirip dengan E-Gold. Abaikan saja atau hapus.
  4. Ubahlah password/passphrases secara berkala dan gunakan gabungan huruf dan angka yang sulit ditebak dan lebih dari 10 karakter, gunakan program pengacak misalnya, untuk mengubah password Anda menjadi karakter yang tidak terbaca, rekam password Anda dalam file misalnya untuk kemudian Anda bisa lakukan copy/paste, jika ingin memasukkan password ini (ini jika anda pakai terminal pribadi).
  5. Saat mengisi password/passphrase login, gunakan tombol SRK di kanan isian. Anda tidak mengetik passwordnya tapi memilih huruf dan angka di window kecil yang muncul menggunakan mouse. Hal ini untuk menghindari password Anda disadap dengan software keylogger yang dapat merekam key yang Anda tekan. Hati-hati apabila Anda menggunakan komputer public seperti di warnet atau lab komputer, karena bisa saja dipasangi keylogger yang langsung bisa mengirim hasilnya ke e-mail penyadap.
  6. Bersihkan selalu komputer yang telah anda pakai membuka Account E-Gold sebelum Anda tinggalkan dengan menghapus semua data yang ada di directory C:\WINDOWS\Cookies, C:\WINDOWS\History dan C:\WINDOWS\Temporary Internet Files.