Selecting Stocks For Investment

Posted by Ryanita on Monday, September 22, 2008 , under | comments (0)



I spent some time over the weekend scanning through the Fortune 100 Fastest Growing Companies for 2007 for companies that interest me. I would look at the company’s business, recent sales and earnings, and future earnings projections. No calculator, just an eyeball on growth rates vs. PE. It was interesting, since the list was compiled in mid 2007, how many companies on the list had had recent earnings set backs. While going through the list I noted some personal likes and dislikes of company attributes that cause me to look favorably or unfavorably on a stock.

Some of my dislikes:

* Companies that have business selling to other companies. There is something about a company that is reliant on another company or industry to manufacture good products and sell them profitability that I avoid. Even if the company is the best around and well run, bad economics or management by their customers can seriously affect the suppliers bottom line.

* Faddish retail companies. Clothing lines, beverages and restaurants. These can all lose ground to the next hot item if they do not come up with the next hot item themselves.

* I have a tendency to avoid all health care and pharmaceuticals. Although health care sucks up a huge portion of the U.S. GDP, I just feel the whole thing is propped up by ever increasing costs that will someday collapse. I am probably entirely paranoid here, but I do not invest in this area.

* Fast growing companies with no earnings set off warning bells in my head. It is my belief that it is easier for a company with hot products or in a hot sector to grow revenues than earnings. A hot company has to start bringing significant dollars to the bottom line before I get interested.Some of my preferences:

* I gravitate to companies with market capitalization between $500 million and $2 billion, plus or minus. I believe companies this size are big enough to have established themselves, but too small for most of Wall Street to have found. Often they have between 1 and 4 analysts following them and good information is hard to find. Maybe I can find a nugget of news that shows me the market has miss-valued the stock.

* I like industries with products people and business must have: Energy, transport, gambling, banking., infrastructure. Well run companies in these business can often count on a certain built in customer base and work to maintain or improve margins.

* I get interested in a company that has a business or niche I have not previously heard of. This might be a company that has carved out a profitable niche by offering a unique product or service.

I will read deeper to see if there is more to get interested in.Once I find a company of interest I usually add it to my Watch List. At some point I will come back to it and dig deeper into finances and their story. It may be the next day or weeks down the road. Right now energy companies are hot and anything to do with home construction is not. I have some of both on the Watch List to get back to as market conditions change. When I review deeper I may keep a stock on the list, remove it because I do not find a compelling reason to keep monitoring it, or move it to one of the portfolios I track here. One thing I try to keep in mind is that prospects change for companies, sectors and markets and it is important to keep options open.by Tim Plaehn, published at www.gracecheng.com

Expectations of Rising Interest Rates Pull Up Euro

Posted by Ryanita on Wednesday, September 17, 2008 , under | comments (0)



The Euro rose to a three-week high of 1.5680 against the US dollar Tuesday after Wolfgang Franz, head of the Center for European Economic Research, or ZEW, said he thinks the ECB “will raise rates in the near future”, but “would recommend that the ECB keep rates constant until there is clear evidence the financial crisis is over”. EUR/USD initially dipped after the release of the economic sentiment survey from ZEW that came in weaker than expected, but then rose higher on the ZEW president’s comments. Germany’s economic sentiment index fell to -41.4 in May, compared with an expected reading of -37. But it’s not just a one-way street in the currency market today: US dollar weakness was limited somewhat as it got some support from higher-than-expected inflation data which showed that US producer price index for finished goods rose 0.2% in April, following a 1.1% increase in March, and core prices excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% last month, twice the 0.2% forecast. Such firm inflation numbers could persuade the Fed to keep rates on hold.

The US dollar also got a bit of support after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said the US economy will improve in the second half of the year and gather some strength in 2009. His cautiously optimistic outlook mirrors that of US Treasury Secretary Paulson. Kohn also said the Fed’s current policy stance “appears to be appropriately calibrated for now to promote both rising employment and moderating inflation over the medium term.”Aussie Dollar Shot Up AgainThe Australian dollar hit another 24-year high for the second straight day after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last meeting indicated that the board discussed rate hikes for a “considerable time”. Australia is currently the odd one out among the world’s major central banks in that it is seriously considering raising interest rates while others are busy cutting. AUD/USD reached as high as 0.9620, its highest point since March 1984.

Forex TradingUSD/CHF fell below 1.0390-1.0400 to a session low of 1.0375. If it breaks below 1.0350, it could target 1.0300-10. Beware that USD/CHF is on the verge of breaking down from its double top, but the said bear target could provide some temporary bidding interest. If that gives way, more aggressive shorts could join in. EUR/USD broke above 1.5650 to a high of 1.5680, with 1.5700-10 its nearest ceiling. Its strength of holding above 1.5500 could send it on its way higher.Wednesday:Australia Westpac consumer confidence 0030 GMTBank of England minutes 0830 GMTUS MBA mortgage applications 1100 GMTCanada CPI 1100 GMTUS FOMC minutes 1800 GMTJapan merchandise trade balance 2350 GMTSource: www.gracecheng.com

How To Spot A Forex Software Scam

Posted by Ryanita on , under | comments (0)



Forex autopilot trading software offers robot-driven automatic trading of the forex market. Creators of these automated forex trading systems claim you can make easy profits with very little time invested, and without having to understand complex algorithms. In this review, I will show you how to determine if forex autopilot or robot trading systems are legitimate or scams.First of all, any forex trading system software that guaranteeing easy, consistent profits is an outright scam.

The forex market, like the stock market, consists of too many random factors. Anyone promising to be able to read the future like a fortune teller is a liar. Forex trading is similar to gambling. But what successful forex robot systems can do, is boost the odds slightly in your favor. Then, there will be a slight probability that you will make money over the long run.However, past success is NOT an indicator of future success for a forex autopilot trading system. Scientifically speaking, this is because the forex market has "no memory", that is, the future and past are unrelated. Just because an advertisement shows you an incredible "historical track record" does not guarantee future success.

This is why legitimate forex robot trading systems will have a disclaimer that there is NO guarantee of profits and that the product is for educational purposes only.This leads to a problem, though. When you purchase a forex autopilot trading system, by agreeing to their terms of service, you have given up all rights or guarantees for a useful product. They can now sell you COMPLETE junk, and since you agreed to take the risk, there is nothing you can do. Make sure that you can at least get a refund if you are not satisfied. Furthermore, try to search for reviews of specific forex software online before you make a purchase. In summary, just because a forex robot trading system made profits in the past does not mean it will make profits for you in the future. You should be very wary of forex software promising profits, as the random forex market is impossible to predict.

Make sure you read reviews of forex autopilot trading systems before you make a purchase, or at least make sure you can get a refund if you are not happy.Instead of hoping someone will give you a hands-free, mind-free way of making money in the forex market, the best investment is learning yourself how the forex market works. You will not be scammed if you understand and test the forex market yourself.

Major Currencies

Posted by Ryanita on Saturday, September 13, 2008 , under | comments (0)



The U.S. DollarThe United States dollar is the world's main currency. All currencies are generally quoted in U.S. dollar terms. Under conditions of international economic and political unrest, the U.S. dollar is the main safe-haven currency which was proven particularly well during the Southeast Asian crisis of 1997-1998.

The U.S. dollar became the leading currency toward the end of the Second World War and was at the center of the Bretton Woods Accord, as the other currencies were virtually pegged against it. The introduction of the euro in 1999 reduced the dollar's importance only marginally.The major currencies traded against the U.S. dollar are the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, and Swiss franc.

The Euro
The euro was designed to become the premier currency in trading by simply being quoted in American terms. Like the U.S. dollar, the euro has a strong international presence stemming from members of the European Monetary Union. The currency remains plagued by unequal growth, high unemployment, and government resistance to structural changes. The pair was also weighed in 1999 and 2000 by outflows from foreign investors, particularly Japanese, who were forced to liquidate their losing investments in eurodenominated assets. Moreover, European money managers rebalanced their portfolios and reduced their euro exposure as their needs for hedging currency risk in Europe declined.

The Japanese Yen
The Japanese yen is the third most traded currency in the world; it has a much smaller international presence than the U.S. dollar or the euro. The yen is very liquid around the world, practically around the clock. The natural demand to trade the yen concentrated mostly among the Japanese keiretsu, the economic and financial conglomerates.The yen is much more sensitive to the fortunes of the Nikkei index, the Japanese stock market, and the real estate market. The attempt of the Bank of Japan to deflate the double bubble in these two markets had a negative effect on the Japanese yen, although the impact was short-lived.

The British Pound
Until the end of World War II, the pound was the currency of reference. Its nickname, cable, is derived from the telex machine, which was used to trade it in its heyday. The currency is heavily traded against the euro and the U.S. dollar, but has a spotty presence against other currencies. The two-year bout with the Exchange Rate Mechanism, between 1990 and 1992, had a soothing effect on the British pound, as it generally had to follow the deutsche mark's fluctuations, but the crisis conditions that precipitated the pound's withdrawal from the ERM had a psychological effect on the currency.Prior to the introduction of the euro, both the pound benefited from any doubts about the currency convergence. After the introduction of the euro, Bank of England is attempting to bring the high U.K. rates closer to the lower rates in the euro zone. The pound could join the euro in the early 2000s, provided that the U.K. referendum is positive.

The Swiss Franc
The Swiss franc is the only currency of a major European country that belongs neither to the European Monetary Union nor to the G-7 countries. Although the Swiss economy is relatively small, the Swiss franc is one of the four major currencies, closely resembling the strength and quality of the Swiss economy and finance. Switzerland has a very close economic relationship with Germany, and thus to the euro zone. Therefore, in terms of political uncertainty in the East, the Swiss franc is favored generally over the euro.Typically, it is believed that the Swiss franc is a stable currency. Actually, from a foreign exchange point of view, the Swiss franc closely resembles the patterns of the euro, but lacks its liquidity. As the demand for it exceeds supply, the Swiss franc can be more volatile than the euro.

Trading with Brokers

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Foreign exchange brokers, unlike equity brokers, do not take positions for themselves; they only service banks. Their roles are:

  • bringing together buyers and sellers in the market;
  • optimizing the price they show to their customers;
  • quickly, accurately, and faithfully executing the traders' orders.

The majority of the foreign exchange brokers execute business via phone. The phone lines between brokers and banks are dedicated, or direct, and are usually in-stalled free of charge by the broker. A foreign exchange brokerage firm has direct lines to banks around the world. Most foreign exchange is executed through an open box system—a microphone in front of the broker that continuously transmits everything he or she says on the direct phone lines to the speaker boxes in the banks. This way, all banks can hear all the deals being executed. Because of the open box system used by brokers, a trader is able to hear all prices quoted; whether the bid was hit or the offer taken; and the following price. What the trader will not be able to hear is the amounts of particular bids and offers and the names of the banks showing the prices. Prices are anonymous the anonymity of the banks that are trading in the market ensures the market's efficiency, as all banks have a fair chance to trade.

Brokers charge a commission that is paid equally by the buyer and the seller. The fees are negotiated on an individual basis by the bank and the brokerage firm.

Brokers show their customers the prices made by other customers either two-way (bid and offer) prices or one way (bid or offer) prices from his or her customers. Traders show different prices because they "read" the market differently; they have different expectations and different interests. A broker who has more than one price on one or both sides will automatically optimize the price. In other words, the broker will always show the highest bid and the lowest offer. Therefore, the market has access to the narrowest spread possible. Fundamental and technical analyses are used for forecasting the future direction of the currency. A trader might test the market by hitting a bid for a small amount to see if there is any reaction.

Brokers cannot be forced into taking a principal's role if the name switch takes longer than anticipated.

Another advantage of the brokers' market is that brokers might provide a broader selection of banks to their customers. Some European and Asian banks have overnight desks so their orders are usually placed with brokers who can deal with the American banks, adding to the liquidity of the market.

Foreign Exchange as a Financial Market

Posted by Ryanita on Wednesday, September 10, 2008 , under | comments (0)



Currency exchange is very attractive for both the corporate and individual traders who make money on the Forex - a special financial market assigned for the foreign exchange. The following features make this market different in compare to all other sectors of the world financial system:

  • heightened sensibility to a large and continuously changing number of factors;
  • accessibility to all traders in the major currencies;
  • guaranteed quantity and liquidity of the major currencies;
  • increased consideration for several currencies, round-the clockbusiness hours which enable traders to deal after normal hours or duringnational holidays in their country finding markets abroad open and
  • extremely high efficiency relative to other financial markets

This goal of this manual is to introduce beginning traders to all the essential aspects of foreign exchange in a practical manner and to be a source of best answers on the typical questions as why are currencies being traded, who are the traders, what currencies do they trade, what makes rates move, what instruments are used for the trade, how a currency behavior can be forecasted and where the pertinent information may be obtained from. Mastering the content ofan appropriate section the user will be able to make his/her own decisions, test them, and ultimately use recommended tools and approaches for his/her own benefit.

Foreign Exchange in a Historical Perspective




Currency trading has a long history and can be traced back to the ancient Middle East and Middle Ages when foreign exchange started to take shape after the international merchant bankers devised bills of exchange, which were transferable third-party payments that allowed flexibility and growth in foreign exchange dealings.

The modern foreign exchange market characterized by the consequent periods of increased volatility and relative stability formed itself in the twentieth century. By the mid-1930s London became to be the leading center for foreign exchange and the British pound served as the currency to trade and to keep as a reserve currency. Because in the old times foreign exchange was traded on the telex machines, or cable, the pound has generally the nickname “cable”. In 1930, the Bank for International Settlements was established in Basel, Switzerland, to oversee the financial efforts of the newly independent countries, emerged after the World War I, and to provide monetary relief to countries experiencing temporary balance of payments difficulties.

After the World War II, where the British economy was destroyed and the United States was the only country unscarred by war, U.S. dollar became the prominent currency of the entire globe. Nowadays, currencies all over the world are generally quoted against the U.S. dollar.